The Council, Graded
Every prediction our AI council makes is graded against the real outcome — and published here, wins and losses alike. See the full track record.
Council leaned toward 200–219 Elon Musk tweets — the count settled at 180–199
On the August 21–28, 2026 Elon Musk tweet-count market, the council’s most likely bucket was 200–219 at 31%, but the winning outcome was 180–199. The graded pick was wrong; Brier score 0.0961.
AI council correctly called 23°C as Madrid’s high on August 27
Graded on its most-likely pick, the council assigned 27% to a 23°C high in Madrid on August 27 and was right. The Brier score of 0.5329 reflects a modest probability on the eventual winner.
The AI council put 56% on Fishback under 10% in the 2026 Florida GOP primary — he took 10–15%
On the eve of the August 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, the council backed YES on James Fishback finishing under 10%. Certified results put him in the 10–15% band instead, and the graded pick was wrong.
Council correctly backed 29°C as Paris high on August 26
Three models, chaired by Grok, assigned 48% to a 29°C high at Paris-Le Bourget on 26 August 2026. That outcome resolved as the winner, validating the council’s most-likely call.
The AI council gave Real Madrid 72% to beat Real Sociedad — Madrid won
Ahead of Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad on 26 August 2026, the council’s most-likely call was a Madrid win at 72%. They recommended SKIP, but the graded pick matched the result and scored a strong Brier of 0.0784.
AI council favored 29°C for Madrid’s August 26 high — 30°C won
The council skipped the Madrid high-temperature market but graded its most-likely pick of 29°C at 42%. The actual high was 30°C, so the call was wrong.
Council correctly flagged 31°C as Guangzhou’s August 26 high
The Prediction Council’s most-likely pick of 31°C for Guangzhou on 26 August 2026 matched the official station reading. Graded on that call, the council was correct with a Brier score of 0.49.
Council leaned 65-89 Elon tweets at 46% — market resolved 40-64
The Prediction Council skipped a short Elon Musk tweet-count window and still graded wrong on its most-likely bucket: 65-89 lost to the actual 40-64 range, with a 0.2116 Brier score.
Council correctly backed NO at 74% on Bitcoin above $78,000 on August 26
The Prediction Council assigned 74% probability to Bitcoin failing to close strictly above $78,000 at the specified August 26 timestamp and recommended BUY_NO. The call proved correct, delivering a strong Brier score of 0.0676.
Council’s 39% lean on 32°C in Kuala Lumpur was right — they still skipped
The Prediction Council named 32°C the most likely high for Kuala Lumpur on August 26 and graded correct when it hit, despite issuing a SKIP. Brier score on the most-likely call was 0.3721.
AI Council favored 15°C for Wellington’s August 26 high — the actual high was 16°C
The council’s most-likely pick of 15°C (34%) for Wellington’s daily high missed the verified 16°C outcome. A straightforward miss on a single-station NOAA resolution, with a Brier score of 0.1156.
The AI council bought YES on Bitcoin above $64,000 for August 26 — the answer was NO
Grok and GPT recommended BUY_YES at 44% on whether Bitcoin would finish above $64,000 on the August 26 snapshot. The market resolved NO, and the council’s call was graded wrong.
AI council correctly favored 31°C for Hong Kong’s August 25 high
The council’s most-likely pick—that Hong Kong’s Observatory high on 25 August 2026 would land in the 31°C bin—was correct. Graded on that basis, the call produced a Brier score of 0.2116.
Council skipped SC Republican Senate primary at 62% on Nordone — she won
The Prediction Council declined a position on the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary despite naming Darline Graham Nordone the most likely winner at 62%. She did win, and the graded most-likely call scored a Brier of 0.1444.
Council correctly bought NO on Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma GOP governor primary
Before the August 25 runoff, the AI council assigned a 62% chance that Mike Mazzei would not win Oklahoma’s Republican primary for governor and recommended BUY_NO. Mazzei did not win; the call was graded correct with a Brier score of 0.1444.
The AI council assigned N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas 89% in Oklahoma’s Democratic Senate runoff — she won
Two days before Oklahoma’s Democratic Senate runoff, the Prediction Council put 89% on N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas and recommended BUY_NO on the alternative path. She won; the graded Brier score was 0.0121.
Council backed 24°C as London’s likeliest August 25 high — and it was correct
Graded on its most-likely pick, the council assigned 26% to a 24°C high at London City Airport on 25 August 2026 and was right. The Brier score of 0.5476 reflects a modest probability on an outcome that resolved yes.
Council assigned 83% to NO on Ethereum above $1,800 — YES won
The council recommended BUY_NO at 83% on whether ETH would finish above $1,800 on August 25, 2026. The market resolved YES, and the call was graded wrong.
The AI council leaned 40% toward 33°C in Kuala Lumpur on August 25 — the high was 32°C
The council’s most-likely pick for the August 25 Kuala Lumpur high was 33°C at 40% probability, but the official NOAA reading resolved at 32°C. A SKIP call and a modest Brier score of 0.16 still left a clear miss on the graded outcome.
Council flagged 320–339 as Elon Musk’s likeliest August 18–25 tweet range — and was right, after skipping
The Prediction Council’s most-likely pick matched the winning 320–339 tweet bucket for Elon Musk’s August 18–25, 2026 window, even though the panel formally recommended SKIP. Graded on that pick, the call was correct with a Brier score of 0.4624.
Council bought NO on Bitcoin above $64,000 for August 25 — YES won
The AI council recommended BUY_NO at 82% on whether Bitcoin would be above $64,000 on August 25, 2026. The market resolved YES; the council was wrong.
Council skipped Athletics vs. Royals O/U — correctly flagged O/U 5.5
The AI council issued a SKIP on the Athletics–Royals totals market but graded its most-likely call of O/U 5.5 as correct when that outcome won, posting a perfect Brier score of 0.0.
Council skipped Bitcoin’s August 24 price ladder — $80,000 still hit
The council’s most likely call was that Bitcoin would reach $80,000 on August 24, assigned at 50%. That outcome won; the formal action was SKIP, with a Brier score of 0.25 on the graded pick.
Council correctly picked 31°C for Shenzhen’s August 24 high
Graded on its most-likely call, the Prediction Council assigned 37% to a 31°C high in Shenzhen on August 24 and was right. The Brier score on that pick was 0.3969.