Every completed council report is graded against the market's real, resolved outcome — fetched from Polymarket after the event settles. Duplicate runs on the same event are listed but only counted once. Nothing is filtered.
| Date | Event | Council pick | Actual outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?(31%) | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Highest temperature in Madrid on August 27? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 27?(27%) | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 27? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 26? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 26?(30%) | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 26? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Bitcoin price on August 26? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on August 26?(74%) | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on August 26? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Highest temperature in Paris on August 26? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26?(48%) | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 26? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 26?(39%) | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 26? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol ↗ | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?(72%) | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Highest temperature in Madrid on August 26? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 26?(42%) | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 26? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 26?(34%) | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 26? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 26?(44%) | NO | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 24 - August 26, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?(46%) | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals ↗ | Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?(54%) | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 25? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 25?(83%) | YES | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs ↗ | Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 25? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 25?(40%) | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 25? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 24, 2026 | South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner ↗ | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?(62%) | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 24, 2026 | What price will Bitcoin hit on August 24? ↗ | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 24?(62%) | YES | No call |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ↗ | Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Highest temperature in London on August 25? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 25?(26%) | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 25? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies ↗ | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur ↗ | Fery vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 24? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24?(40%) | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 18 - August 25, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?(32%) | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Prague 2: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Radu Mihai Papoe ↗ | Batalla vs. Papoe: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5(0%) | — | No call |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?(37%) | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 25? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 25?(82%) | YES | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner ↗ | Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?(62%) | Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Terence Atmane ↗ | Zverev vs. Atmane: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Highest temperature in Taipei on August 24? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 24?(22%) | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 24? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner ↗ | Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?(89%) | Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe ↗ | Sonego vs. Tiafoe: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5(0%) | — | No call |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 24? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 24?(89%) | YES | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Highest temperature in Wellington on August 23? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 23?(56%) | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 23? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 22 - August 24, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?(43%) | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo ↗ | Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 22, 2026 | What price will Ethereum hit August 17-23? ↗ | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?(7%) | NO | ✓ Right |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 23? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 23?(32%) | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 23? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 22, 2026 | New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays ↗ | New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 22, 2026 | What price will XRP hit August 17-23? ↗ | Will XRP reach $1.70 August 17-23?(72%) | NO | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 20 - August 22, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?(81%) | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Highest temperature in Wellington on August 22? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 22?(98%) | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 22? | No call |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ↗ | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5(0%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 22? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 22?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 22? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 22?(34%) | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros ↗ | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | What price will Bitcoin hit on August 21? ↗ | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 21?(14%) | NO | ✓ Right |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Highest temperature in London on August 22? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?(38%) | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 22? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cincinnati Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magdalena Frech ↗ | Cincinnati Open: Completed Match: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magdalena Frech(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ↗ | 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays ↗ | Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5(0%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 22? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 22?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21? ↗ | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 21?(96%) | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 21? | No call |
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs ↗ | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 20, 2026 | XRP above ___ on August 21? ↗ | Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on August 21?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 20 - August 22, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?(36%) | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Highest temperature in Paris on August 21? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?(35%) | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 21? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros ↗ | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 21? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?(49%) | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins ↗ | Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)(0%) | — | No call |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Highest temperature in London on August 20? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?(35%) | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 21? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 21?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 20, 2026 | National Bank Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina ↗ | Set 2 Winner: Swiatek vs Rybakina(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Highest temperature in Madrid on August 20? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 20?(45%) | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 21? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 21?(24%) | YES | ✓ Right |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?(34%) | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins ↗ | 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?(52%) | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 19, 2026 | National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima ↗ | Shelton vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 21.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels ↗ | Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 19? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?(35%) | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 19? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 19? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 19?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Thanasi Kokkinakis ↗ | Borges vs. Kokkinakis: Match O/U 23.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 17 - August 19, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?(64%) | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19?(42%) | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 20? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 20?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 18, 2026 | New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves ↗ | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 19? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?(48%) | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees ↗ | Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 19? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?(32%) | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ↗ | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place ↗ | Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?(72%) | Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 18? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 18?(48%) | YES | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Highest temperature in Singapore on August 18? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 18?(62%) | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 18? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 17, 2026 | The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs London Spirit ↗ | The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs London Spirit(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 19? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 19?(53%) | YES | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?(58%) | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Highest temperature in London on August 18? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?(34%) | Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ↗ | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 17, 2026 | James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary? ↗ | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?(56%) | Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 17? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 17?(51%) | YES | No call |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?(52%) | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers ↗ | Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5(100%) | — | No call |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Elon Musk # tweets August 15 - August 17, 2026? ↗ | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?(55%) | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 18? ↗ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 18?(99%) | — | No call |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17? ↗ | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?(64%) | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Valorant: Fire Flux Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins ↗ | Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5(62%) | — | No call |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner ↗ | Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?(92%) | Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? | ✗ Wrong |
| Aug 16, 2026 | How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16? ↗ | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?(90%) | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16? | ✓ Right |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ethereum above ___ on August 16? ↗ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 16?(16%) | NO | ✗ Wrong |
Hit rate = how often the council's single most-likely outcome won, across events that typically have many possible outcomes. Simulated ROI assumes $100 staked on the council's single strongest mispricing (edge) call per event — additional suggestions on the same event resolve together with the first, so they are not double-counted. It is a simulation, not real trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.