Every completed council report is graded against the market's real, resolved outcome — fetched from Polymarket after the event settles. Duplicate runs on the same event are listed but only counted once. Nothing is filtered.
| Date | Event | Council pick | Actual outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? ↗ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(1%) | NO | ✓ Right |
| Jul 25, 2026 | What will happen before GTA VI? ↗ | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?(20%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 24, 2026 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? ↗ | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?(85%) | YES | No call |
| Jul 24, 2026 | LoL: LEC Versus 2026 Winner ↗ | Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus?(100%) | Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus? | ✓ Right |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) ↗ | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?(82%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Fed Decision in July? ↗ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?(84%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Bank of Russia decision in July? ↗ | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?(64%) | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | ✗ Wrong |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ↗duplicate run | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(23%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ↗duplicate run | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(24%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 18, 2026 | World Cup: Group of Champion ↗ | Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group H?(60%) | Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group H? | ✓ Right |
| Jul 18, 2026 | July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) ↗duplicate run | Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?(46%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 16, 2026 | World Cup Winner ↗duplicate run | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(59%) | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | ✓ Right |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ↗ | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(26%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 15, 2026 | July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) ↗ | Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?(44%) | — | Pending |
| Jul 15, 2026 | World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo ↗ | World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo(99%) | YES | No call |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti ↗ | Cattolica: Completed Match: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti(100%) | Cattolica: Completed Match: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti | ✓ Right |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Tunisia vs. Japan ↗ | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?(64%) | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | ✓ Right |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Türkiye vs. Paraguay ↗ | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(48%) | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? | ✗ Wrong |
| Jun 18, 2026 | England vs. Croatia ↗ | Will England win on 2026-06-17?(100%) | Will England win on 2026-06-17? | ✓ Right |
| Jun 18, 2026 | World Cup Winner ↗duplicate run | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(20%) | — | ✗ Wrong |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?(51%) | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | ✓ Right |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Brazil vs. Morocco | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?(62%) | Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | ✗ Wrong |
| Jun 11, 2026 | World Cup Winner | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(17%) | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | ✓ Right |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13?(25%) | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? | ✗ Wrong |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Highest temperature in Manila on June 8? | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 8?(27%) | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? | ✗ Wrong |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 5? | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June 5?(100%) | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 5? | ✗ Wrong |
| May 15, 2026 | Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16? | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16?(80%) | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16? | ✓ Right |
| May 6, 2026 | Highest temperature in Karachi on May 7? | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 7?(30%) | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 7? | ✗ Wrong |
| May 6, 2026 | Highest temperature in Wellington on May 7? | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7?(45%) | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7? | ✗ Wrong |
| May 5, 2026 | Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 6? | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on May 6?(45%) | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on May 6? | ✓ Right |
| May 5, 2026 | Highest temperature in Singapore on May 5? | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 5?(41%) | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 5? | ✓ Right |
| May 1, 2026 | Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on May 2? | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 2(0%) | NO | ✓ Right |
Hit rate = how often the council's single most-likely outcome won, across events that typically have many possible outcomes. Simulated ROI assumes $100 staked on every mispricing (edge) call the council made; it is a simulation, not real trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.